Vogi Stocks

Gold is rallying higher after the weekend mostly because the dollar and US 10 year are dropping. Our technical analysis of the chart didn’t play out exactly as planned, which perfectly illustrates and reminds us how it’s super dynamic and won’t provide any value unless we’re willing to be just as fluid with changing our views on reading a particular chart. Can see earlier there was a similar pattern and it found support at the same level as that pattern did as well.

Feeling grateful for this chart because it also gave another lesson about never relying on chart patterns alone without considering other factors such as market indicators, sentiment, news, and narrative.

Our blog on technical analysis covers all you need to know on reading charts.

Gold didn’t mirror oils moves early in the week although we’ve not yet turned bearish. It seems to have broken its pattern of support, although looking at a larger time frame of 3 months or 6 months, we are able to draw a support line where gold is currently at as well as another near the 3200 level keeping us optimistic on gold. All eyes are still on the US Dollar as it continues its upward momentum, while simultaneously the US 10 yr. seems to be continuing its own uptrend which is causing the current decline in gold.

Even though both indicators (DXY & the 10 yr) are bearish for gold, we know the US debt financing is coming up having and a lower ten year would make it easier for US to pay it off. Meanwhile, we still believe a cheaper dollar is good for Trump, yet recent moves…

Gold is showing a similar graph to oil a couple months ago when it was leading up to the Israel-Iran attacks which caused the massive rally in oil shown below. To help us tell if gold will do the same, it’s key to watch the USD. The US dollar has been showing a steady and small uptrend that could be signalling the start of a stronger USD — or it could be a trick causing a fake out just because of events and sentiment from last week. When dollar goes up gold goes down, and vice versa.

If the USD breaks down, we could see gold do what oil did — maybe not as much as big of a move in such a short time frame.