Vogi Stocks

Government emptying the tank because it realised it didn’t have enough for the debt and accepted defeat in the traditional sense. Maybe crypto will be the replacement system but this will likely be gradual and potentially volatile as profits from inflated assets slowly enter this area.

Pumping from the tank into markets and specific assets it deems necessary to manage the decline to stimulate borrowing and spending. Inflate value of assets to get a bag that gets hoarded to hedge against the real economy and real businesses not growing at all and making more profits.

Whatever government is emptying the tank on is what it deems as necessary for managing the decline even if they don’t make money those industries should be viewed as needing and receiving support.

Watching this market bubble form has been a rollercoaster. Balancing a risk off approach with AI and trend following has been extremely volatile. Traditional hedges are shifting and atypical asset classes are performing typically such as precious metals and crypto.

One major trend we noticed at the start of this bubble is particularly laser, optics, photonics, memory storage, high-speed networking, optical cables and such companies have seen the largest gains. It’s important to note that many of these companies are extremely volatile and now have P/E ratios from 50 to over 100 indicating investors are extremely optimistic.

While these technologies fall under the broader scope of the entire AI industry, we can further narrow down the group of outperformers as specifically tailored towards edge AI. I want to also note that given our research into quantum technologies earlier last year, we mentioned that these kinds of companies are the necessary…

In the lead‑up to Jerome Powell’s final speech as Fed Chair this morning, markets were uncertain and trending lower. However, his remarks signaled that the current cycle of rate cuts will continue, sparking sharp moves across assets closely tied to monetary policy decisions such as the 10 year rate, gold, the US dollar index, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

Trump is allowing chips to go to China. Coherent, a laser and optics company, announced they sold its aerospace and defense business during their earnings report yesterday and the stock tanked. Teledyne is another defense company working on vision and optics for defense and they're stock recently took a hit as well.

From our blog about future AI scenarios, we laid out multiple ways AI would be built out over time. It seems the scenario where militarization and stunting of adversary AI development is being dismantled in front of our eyes in real time. This narrows the possibilities of future AI scenarios and provides us an idea of how to adjust.

Check out blog to get a grasp of this framework: https://www.vogigroup.com/post/most-probable-ai-scenarios-investors-should-prepare-for

If you were watching the financial news last week or paid attention to analysts online, most were hinting at a top in gold. Trump then announced tarrifs on gold and the futures reached a record high on Friday after the US reportedly placed tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars.Lets see if these leads to a sustained rally or a sell the news situation.

After Apple announced 40% of their iPhones would be manufactured in India, 50% tariffs were placed India for buying Russian oil followed by 100% tariffs on foreign made chips. Apple was faced with additional 25% tariffs when selling foreign made iPhones into the US as part of trumps strategic moves to restore manufacturing power, ultimately forcing Apple to spend 600 billion on US manufacturing. The wave of companies mentioned in this announcement were COHR AMAT GFS GLW AMKR AVGO & TXN.

We think we’re in a wartime economy and have been seeing amazing returns as a result. Check out our latest blogs about technological determinism and the probable future outcomes of AI to understand why we think that and how we’re positioned.

The second space race is on. NASA recently said they’re fast racking plans to build nuclear reactors on the moon by 2030. This comes after a year of multiple humanless moon landings, geopolitical tensions, golden dome talks and solving the energy crisis.

Today, Disney beat earnings. I was a Disney plus subscriber up until yesterday and it wasn’t by design. I got charged 8.99 instead of 2.50 for the first time in 6 months last week and when I tried to cancel my subscription, I received an error code each time. Finally I went into the painstaking live chat and got my subscription cancelled and refunded but had me…

Predicting a wartime economy until at least 2026 looking at companies in ag, semis, energy, optical electronics, aerospace, advanced healthcare research/ biotech, advanced materials, energy/mineral commodities, water, waste, infrastructure, specialty industrial chemicals

As long as the US 10 yr and expectations for rate cuts remain, the market will go up becuase TINA. There are obviously risks of volatility events occurring along the way and they should be seen as buying opportunities generally speaking. Watch out for bifurcation, sector rotations and general trends.

73k is what we got but 100k jobs were expected. This data indicates the economy is slowing. Futures dropped on top of tarrifs being announced during yesterday’s anticipated volatility.

the US 10 year dropped from 4.4 to 4.2 on the news, this is increasing the probability of an earlier rate cut which we think should be seen as bullish

Found this interesting: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_SN20250731004098:0/

AB InBev reported earnings and stock went down its most since Covid. The ceo was saying that young people from Covid are going out less than previous generations and ages 21-23 saw less demand, but once they aged past this range demand normalized. He also said demand is normalizing compared to pre Covid levels despite changes to social behaviour. He mentioned sales in china and Brazil were down more than expected, which is likely indicative of a larger trend between these countries’ trade. There’s massive demand for non-alcoholic versions of originally alcoholic beverages up 33%. The ceo said this was from non-alcoholic beverages improving in taste, but over the last 2-3 years we’ve been noticing a strong trend towards non-alcoholic versions of beer and wine indicating consumer demand is the driving force behind the improvements in this growing trend.

Typically these companies are safer during uncertainty…

Europes been doing well but is this the start of a new European stocks trend? This is big for European companies in ai and things related. I think trump is forcing allies to build out ai capabilities because China vs USA ai innovation is neck and neck and we need allied help. It’s similar to the internet where USA developed it first then shared it with the rest of the world and only then realized internets true value and ended up dominating. Our ai stocks are at all time highs indicating we have that dominance and are now striking deals by aug 1 tariffs deadline to share IP and software weights for training ai, they just need to build out the infrastructure to handle the ai. With that, European construction, energy/utility companies, water management companies , mining and materials , what else would benefit?

On Wednesday Jerome will make a rate announcement. Gemeni just told me the market forces are betting a 95 percent chance the fed keeps rates as they are. In the worst case scenario he hints at something that indicates there may be future rate hikes market would crash and insurance companies could be SAFE.

Market is at all time highs🎉

July Opex is tomorrow. If a lot of people are short still we could see that pressure getting lifted tomorrow with the effects of it showing in markets on Monday. Supposedly markets at new highs keep going because there’s no resistance so we’re about to see how true this is.

We’re just going to be cautious of the ten year rate, but so far have been seeing a bullish narrative on tv and social media so just going to go with the flow and try to spot opportunities where they show themselves. With random stocks squeezing just remember to not chase the hype, and if youre not early then you’re late.

Starting with Opendoor technologies then came Kohl’s. We saw others like ocean power technologies and Kirkland’s. Starting yesterday and mostly today we got Krispy Kreme and GoPro.

It’s not just the meme stocks though. Some other names are also experiencing minor squeezes from earnings like Thermo fisher and Lamb Weston.

Reason: hedge funds were buying cheap puts as SP500 hit all time highs. Rate cuts are expected, or at least a positive announcement about them in August/September fueling expectations for cheap debt borrowing by companies that have lots of it. These are mostly penny stocks or dying companies that have a lot of short interest. All this together, retail traders are looking for these heavily shorted companies with a good well known name and/or strong narrative to attempt a squeeze.

This environment gives the most control to retail traders out of any envirinment in the stock market. Therefore, while Reddit…

Gold is rallying higher after the weekend mostly because the dollar and US 10 year are dropping. Our technical analysis of the chart didn’t play out exactly as planned, which perfectly illustrates and reminds us how it’s super dynamic and won’t provide any value unless we’re willing to be just as fluid with changing our views on reading a particular chart. Can see earlier there was a similar pattern and it found support at the same level as that pattern did as well.

Feeling grateful for this chart because it also gave another lesson about never relying on chart patterns alone without considering other factors such as market indicators, sentiment, news, and narrative.

Our blog on technical analysis covers all you need to know on reading charts.

With the market at all time highs and tomorrow being July monthly Opex, we could see a dip start on Monday. Puts are cheaper than they’ve ever been and the global macro environment is uncertain.

Its earnings season now and companies have started reporting this week with PEP beating and stock rising +10$ a share. Consumer and other defensive sector stocks are on our radar as we navigate the next few weeks.

Gold didn’t mirror oils moves early in the week although we’ve not yet turned bearish. It seems to have broken its pattern of support, although looking at a larger time frame of 3 months or 6 months, we are able to draw a support line where gold is currently at as well as another near the 3200 level keeping us optimistic on gold. All eyes are still on the US Dollar as it continues its upward momentum, while simultaneously the US 10 yr. seems to be continuing its own uptrend which is causing the current decline in gold.

Even though both indicators (DXY & the 10 yr) are bearish for gold, we know the US debt financing is coming up having and a lower ten year would make it easier for US to pay it off. Meanwhile, we still believe a cheaper dollar is good for Trump, yet recent moves…

Gold is showing a similar graph to oil a couple months ago when it was leading up to the Israel-Iran attacks which caused the massive rally in oil shown below. To help us tell if gold will do the same, it’s key to watch the USD. The US dollar has been showing a steady and small uptrend that could be signalling the start of a stronger USD — or it could be a trick causing a fake out just because of events and sentiment from last week. When dollar goes up gold goes down, and vice versa.

If the USD breaks down, we could see gold do what oil did — maybe not as much as big of a move in such a short time frame.

SP500 at all time highs with many stocks also reaching new peaks today. Lots of volatility remains but largely to the upside. Bitcoin is tapping all time highs reaching 110,000. At the same time, gold is also holding high while it’s dealing with a mean range of around 3300 as the US dollar remains below 98 on the DXY. After a few weeks of declining, the US 10 yr is beginning to creep up from 4.2s to above the 4.3 range which is bearish as the US debt financing creeps closer. Ongoing trade deals, like the most recent one with Vietnam, and an expected rate cut in September seem to be fueling the current rally. Trump announced today that he’s lifting restrictions for chip design software companies to work with China directly impacting synopsys, cadence and ansys. With tariff day coming on July 9 as the next major day to…