In the lead‑up to Jerome Powell’s final speech as Fed Chair this morning, markets were uncertain and trending lower. However, his remarks signaled that the current cycle of rate cuts will continue, sparking sharp moves across assets closely tied to monetary policy decisions such as the 10 year rate, gold, the US dollar index, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
As long as the US 10 yr and expectations for rate cuts remain, the market will go up becuase TINA. There are obviously risks of volatility events occurring along the way and they should be seen as buying opportunities generally speaking. Watch out for bifurcation, sector rotations and general trends.
73k is what we got but 100k jobs were expected. This data indicates the economy is slowing. Futures dropped on top of tarrifs being announced during yesterday’s anticipated volatility.
the US 10 year dropped from 4.4 to 4.2 on the news, this is increasing the probability of an earlier rate cut which we think should be seen as bullish
On Wednesday Jerome will make a rate announcement. Gemeni just told me the market forces are betting a 95 percent chance the fed keeps rates as they are. In the worst case scenario he hints at something that indicates there may be future rate hikes market would crash and insurance companies could be SAFE.
